Question Par geronimo98: Dans combien de temps notre modèle de société puis notre civilisation vont t ils s’écrouler?
Peter Turchin « War And Peace And War: The Life Cycle of Imperial Nations »
Ranging freely from the founding of Rome to 17th-century North America, this provocative essay in « cliodynamics » (« the study of processes that change with time ») searches for scientific regularities that underlie history. Ecologist and mathematician Turchin grounds his theory of preindustrial empires in the Arabic concept of asabiya, meaning a society’s capacity for collective action. Empires germinate, he contends, along « meta-ethnic frontiers » where conflict between starkly alien peoples—Roman farmers vs. Celtic tribesmen in the fifth and sixth centuries B.C., say—fosters the social solidarity and discipline that empire building requires. Success, he continues, leads inexorably to decline: stability and prosperity produce overpopulation and a Malthusian crisis in which the struggle for scarce resources undermines social solidarity and triggers imperial collapse.
Meilleure réponse:
Answer by GILMIG
…mille ans sont comme un jour !
On peut dire à mille ans prés que c’est pour demain !
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